I think you're right. There was an excellent article in the NY Times today that gave me hope about the independent/moderate voters and which direction they are leaning. Hint: not Trump. Here is a friend link. Hopefully it gets you past the paywall:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/21/opinion/focus-group-biden-moderates.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxfs9gGPzNiGeVTdcwqNPW9LavB-TIvA6INwr3jKaQ9kGPrgkWec3wfVYIlQoQQikr53BnZMJLj88tY-oGGMq2paHFZYJzQjXVEjrYuFu2O_4-BOALDWqCPaZiTJ2OgYz9ppkfV2uxSECzqfaFuF_j80u3v1yGsp4EjdUZnLd6qS5DQ5se4nTNmGq4Qc1X-pdWjHQjITcv-pGKFMOfAqAGHBv4m8868deP8cXP8v9LB0jccn5hdYBGzAibdfpV9BqGd-ix_g9uqXNqBeM1MOz2_42caxUt7vOuWq9X009D6Y8KSJJQE3K2rRroKHOhA&smid=url-share